Industry insiders said in an interview with People's Daily Online that the "Report" is more cautious in evaluating the latest economic situation than the first quarter monetary policy report, which means that monetary policy will be moderately fine-tuned in the direction of stable growth in the second half of the year. But it will not shift to full easing.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, believes that in terms of economic situation assessment, the basic view of the "Report" is based on the judgment made by the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee on July 30, that is, "The current global epidemic is still evolving, and the external The environment has become more complex and severe, and the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven." The "significant increase in positive factors" in the first quarter report was not mentioned again. This also reflects the central bank's second half of the work conference communique put forward to "conscientiously unify thoughts and actions into the Party Central Committee's judgment and decision-making deployment of the economic situation."
"In the "Report" released this time, it explained the specific performance of'domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven', that is, the growth rate of exports may slow down due to the high base number, investment growth in some areas is weak, and catering and tourism contact Type consumption has not yet been fully repaired, and economic growth momentum is facing certain challenges in sustainability.” Wang Qing said, this means that under the new domestic and international epidemic and economic situation, the future monetary policy will be moderately fine-tuned in the direction of stable growth. July The full RRR cut can be regarded as the first step in this direction.
It is worth noting that the “Report” stated that “the weighted average interest rate of loans in June was 4.93%, a record low since statistics.” In its comments, Ping An Securities believes that the central bank has strengthened the internal and external LPR financial institutions by adjusting the self-discipline upper limit of deposit interest rates. The benchmark role in pricing guides banks to reduce physical financing costs. In addition, through the improvement of the macro-prudential evaluation system assessment, further guiding the optimization of the loan structure. In the first half of the year, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans increased by 31% year-on-year, and the balance of medium and long-term loans to the manufacturing industry increased by 41.6% year-on-year.
In terms of price trends, the "Report" continues to believe that the risk of high domestic inflation in the second half of the year is not significant, and price control will not hinder the flexible adjustment of monetary policy. The "Report" predicts that "domestic CPI will operate smoothly within a reasonable range in the second half of the year," and believes that "As the base effect fades and global production and supply resumes, PPI is expected to tend to fall in the future."
Wang Qing believes that this means that the central bank judges that the risk of high domestic inflation in the second half of the year is small, and price trends will not become a constraint to the flexible adjustment of monetary policy and the moderate adjustment to the direction of stable growth.
What information is released by monetary policy in the second quarter